In one NCAR simulation, the September ice was seen to shrink from about 2.3 million square miles to 770,000 square miles in just a 10-year period.

A startling new study by a team of U.S. and Canadian scientists predicts that the retreat of ice in the Arctic could accelerate so rapidly, the Arctic may be free of all summer ice as early as 2040. 

A University of Washington professor co-authored the work, using a computer model to determine how quickly sea ice is retreating.

Dr. Cecilia Bitz found that by 2040, there may be none left during the summer months.

"The emerging global warming signal seems to be more and more potent, more and more believable, and more and more certain," said Bitz's colleague, Dr. Peter Rhines, who studies oceanography in his UW lab how the arctic affects other climates.

He said his colleague's work, combined with emerging evidence from around the globe, leaves little doubt that global warming exists.

"When you see pieces changing all over the jigsaw puzzle, then you have to say or begin to suspect that this really is the signal we've been anticipating," he said.
If the new computer model research is true, there may be no turning back.

Some scientists believe the Arctic ice melt has reached a so-called "tipping point," where the changes are irreversible.

"A few years ago we would have said, well it's an idea, maybe it will happen. But this year, I think I would say the likelihood is increasingly large that it's going to happen," said Rhines.

It's a reality that Rhines says would forever change the landscape of the frozen tundra, and ultimately, the rest of the world.

"The Arctic is the place where it's happening first, it's the canary in the mine shaft," he said.

Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research believe steps can still be taken to change the Arctic's future. They found reducing emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases would at least slow down the ice melt.

Rhines said it's impossible to predict exactly how the Arctic ice melt would impact us here, but the climate of Western Washington would almost certainly change.